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More holiday sales = economic growth

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Black Friday is only 10 days away! Will you brave the mall? As you stand in the long lines, we’ll give you some tidbits to think about with how your purchases play a part in boosting the economy this holiday season.

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This year retailers are expecting much more than a lump of coal. Major retailers and shipping companies are expecting holiday sales to increase more than 4 percent. We haven’t seen 4 percent growth since 2011. Throughout the last decade, holiday sales have averaged 2.9 percent growth.

Many retailers have already announced significant hiring plans to meet the demand—so seasonal workers may be up as much as 10 percent from last year. A couple of primary shipping companies are even doubling their holiday workforce largely due to demand coming from e-commerce.
1So while you can see that most of the economic data in the United States supports a rather jolly shopping season, we can’t ignore some risks that could shake consumer confidence. A correction in the stock market, or signs of a recession in Europe are events that would in – fact, affect this forecast.

However, we strongly believe that consumers are in better financial health for a number of reasons:

  • Household net worth is at an all time high. This is due to higher stock and home prices.
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  • The labor market is solid. Unemployment is less than 6 percent and job growth has been increasing at a nice pace. These employment gains should continue as there are 4.8 million job openings, a level we haven’t seen since 2001.
  • You are probably noticing lower prices at the pump as well. That translates to more disposable income in consumer’s pockets.
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  • And finally, consumer confidence has been trending up since the Great Recession. And when we feel good about things, we consume.

There are even more factors that point to a better holiday season than last year:

  • Last year the government shutdown in the fourth quarter may have shaken consumer confidence and affected spending – we aren’t facing that situation this year.
  • Unseasonably cold and stormy weather led to some store closings across the nation.
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  • Lastly, in 2013 there were six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to 2012. This year there is one additional day, which makes year over year comparable sale easier to beat.

We think this holiday shopping season will support our forecast of 3 percent economic growth in the fourth quarter.  We also expect to see positive returns in the domestic stock markets.

I wish all of you a happy and healthy holiday season. I’ll be back to deliver part two of this forecast after Thanksgiving.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Presidential Terms: What does it matter to the economy?

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It’s election day! Last week we gave you our take on the economic impact of midterm elections.

Now let’s talk about the effects of the presidential cycle.

See below for more…

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Elections and the markets
Investors want to know what the midterm election will do to the markets. Historical data tells us that midterm election years are historically poor performing years in the stock markets.

Let’s step back and review the presidential cycle. Here’s what we found from analyzing 142 years of data:

  • worst performing: year two
    • average return of 2.7 percent
  • best performing: year three
    • equity markets gain on average 12.3 percent

One possible reason for the poor performance in the second year of the presidential cycle (which is also the midterm election year) could be that policy makers remove stimulus after a presidential election, leaving  the worst of the restrictive policy in year two of the presidential term.

Does party matter?
I hear many complaints about a Democrat in the White House being bad for business. Of course, everyone has a right to share opinions, but I’ll stick to fact-based data. I make the assumption that stock market returns are a proxy for business conditions. Going back to 1901, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a barometer, the best-performing markets have occurred with a democratic president. Further, the average return under a democratic president is 7.9 percent versus 3 percent with a republican president.

What if we are correct and the Republicans control Congress with President Obama in the White House? What can we expect from the equity markets? Historically that separation of control produces the best returns in the Dow. The average return in that scenario has been 9.8 percent. The worst returns – 1.7 percent – have been seen when the Republicans are in total control of Washington.

Perhaps our founding fathers structured it that way, to ensure no single party would have total control, at least not for long. Perhaps the financial markets don’t like abrupt changes and uncertainty. Gridlock ensures nothing will get done quickly and any policy tweaks will be relatively small.

 

We cannot disagree with data, but keep in mind that elections do matter on many fronts. So find a way to tolerate all those campaign ads, and go out and exercise your constitutional right to vote. If there’s any silver lining to having your political party in control of one side and your opposing party the other, remember it may be a good thing for the financial markets.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Midterm elections: What does it matter to the economy?

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Elections are vital for more than just ensuring the democratic process (and inundating you with political campaign ads). They also decide which politicians will be making serious fiscal decisions for us. With the midterm elections being held next week, we want to discuss just how they affect the economy.

See below for more…

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Control change in Congress
The race worth watching in the midterm elections this year will be in the Senate. At this early stage we believe there is a slightly better than 50 percent chance that the Republican Party will win control of the Senate. As for the House, the Republican majority does not appear to be changing hands.

Currently, Democrats control the Senate with 53 seats and two Independents that both caucus with the Democrats. Republicans hold the remaining 45 seats.

Here’s the math that leads us to our conclusion that the Republicans have the edge this time:

  • 36 contested seats
    • 21 will go to the Democrats
      • These include seven Democrats in states that supported Mitt Romney in the presidential election. These seven states have substantially lower approval ratings of President Obama than the national average.
    • 15 will go to the Republicans
      • Only one of the Republicans up for reelection is in a state that President Obama carried.

Our research tells us that incumbency is a powerful thing.  During an average election cycle, 90 percent of incumbents win reelection. The Republicans need six additional seats to have the majority, which means it’s going to be close. This is why we put the odds at only slightly better than a coin toss.

What we find interesting is looking past the 2014 Senate race and into the 2016 cycle where we see the opposite happening. Out of the 24 Republicans up for reelection, seven are in states that supported President Obama, meaning the Senate may see a yo-yo effect in 2016.

Why it matters
Why does it matter if the Republicans control Congress? If they are in control, we believe Congress will focus its attention on a few major issues:

  • Spending and other fiscal issues – The debt ceiling will once again be a discussion point in March 2015. A Republican-controlled Congress may look for spending concessions.
  • The 2016 budget -The Republicans made a big deal out of the Senate’s failure to pass a budget in the past, so now it’s their turn to get it done. If Paul Ryan is Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, we could see discussions around tax reform and changes to Medicare and Medicaid.
  • Immigration reform – This could be put on the back burner, which forces it to be addressed by our 2016 presidential candidates.

Stay tuned for part II of this topic on election day—November 4!

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Top 10 Market and Economic Variables to Watch…and 3 to Ignore – Part IV

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Refresh yourself on the entire Top 10 market and economic variables you should be watching closely: part 1part 2part 3.

Now it’s time to tell you the three things we think you should ignore! While there aren’t any variables that are truly ignored, perhaps the value of these three variables isn’t worth the attention they often get.

THREE TO IGNORE

3. The Noise: Data vs. Information

This is a classic case of data versus information. Data consists of facts, which become information, as it conveys meaning to investors. For example, computers process data without any understanding of what the data represents. Similarly, investors are bombarded with headlines, facts and figures — in other words, data. Without the proper context behind the numbers and headlines being thrown at them, it just becomes noise.  When investors attempt to process all of this, it makes it hard to decipher what data is giving them the information they need to make investment decisions. Investors would be wise to focus on a few key variables (like the ones we told you about earlier), and filter out all of the other noise.

2. Headline Unemployment Rate

The headline unemployment rate, specifically, the primary measurement: U3, does not accurately reflect the employment picture. The official unemployment rate, which measures the proportion of the civilian labor force 16 years or older that are jobless but actively seeking employment, can be either overstated or understated. This could be due to discouraged workers, part-time workers and unreported legal or illegal employment. Taken together, these measurement problems suggest that the official unemployment rate is likely understated during business-cycle contractions and overstated during business-cycle expansions.

The unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent in 2009 and then trended lower down to the current 6.3 percent. However, in the same period, the participation rate, a measure of the active portion of an economy’s labor force also came crashing down from 65.7 percent to an all-time low of 62.8 percent. It appears that most of the drop in the unemployment rate may be attributed to a falling participation rate—less people searching for a job rather than new jobs being created. This particular headline statistic is one that should probably be ignored.

1. What the Federal Reserve Says

Forecasting interest rates is extremely difficult. The Federal Reserve has a difficult time with it too.  In the past, the Fed has under promised and then over delivered. In 1994, 1999 and 2004, the Fed’s projection of Fed funds was not as accurate as one would expect. In each of those years listed, Fed funds were higher than the Fed had forecasted. Last year, the Fed began to taper its bond-buying activity, also known as quantitative easing. Having reduced their activity each month, we expect them to continue doing this until the program is terminated. Hiking interest rates is also being talked about, but we think that is noise in the markets. All in all, we recommend watching what they do, not what they talk about.

With all of the data investors could consume on any given day, at any given hour, this top 10 list of market and economic indicators and 3 to ignore, is a guide to cutting the clutter to get to the information needed to best understand today’s economic environment.

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DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Top 10 Market and Economic Variables to Watch…and 3 to Ignore – Part III

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Here are the last four of our Top 10 list. Look back on part 1 and part 2 if you missed them! But check back in a couple weeks for the three things we think you should ignore!

4. Government Spending

Government spending is approximately 18 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) formula. Remember the potential fiscal cliff that was scheduled to become effective on December 31, 2012? If that combination of expiring tax cuts and across-the-board government spending cuts had been executed, the economy would have been pushed into a recession.  Sequestration, a result of the fiscal cliff, only lasted a year. In January 2014, a new $1.1 trillion budget was signed and sequestration essentially evaporated.

Federal spending is on the rebound and state and local governments are, on a relative basis, in better financial shape than we have seen in many years.  Governments are now spending money and we anticipate that they will make a positive contribution to GDP growth.

3. Housing Momentum

Housing is an important variable in the economy because housing starts mean more jobs. For every housing start, we estimate that there are three direct jobs created (carpenters, roofers, etc.) and another three indirect jobs (carpet manufactures, appliance manufacturing, etc.). We think homebuilder surveys tend to lead to housing permits and starts. Right now, homebuilder surveys are robust and support our forecast of 1 million new home starts in 2014.

Rising mortgage rates and home prices, along with weaker household formation growth, may slow housing activity, but it will not turn negative.

2. Confidence

Consumers and business owners gain confidence in the economy as uncertainty wanes. An increase in confidence is an encouraging signal that consumption and economic activity will be on the rise. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence and the National Federation of Independent Businesses Small Business Optimism Index measure the consumer and business owner’s confidence levels. Both indices trended lower long before the Great Recession and the equity market peak in October of 2007. In addition, the indices turned to a positive trend early in 2009, long before the market bottom and the end of the recession.

Confidence data is at a five-year high due to the rising stock market, a strong labor market and all-time high household net worth. With consumers feeling good, we anticipate that consumption will continue.

1. Consumption

Consumption drives GDP and consumption is 68 percent of the GDP formula. If consumption growth is robust and increasing, we think GDP will follow that path.

Personal consumption expenditures have been disappointingly flat. Although spending has increased, it’s nowhere near the level required to advance economic growth to more than 3 percent. Advance retail sales also show positive growth, but only supporting mediocre GDP growth.

 

Of all the noise out there, these are the top 10 market and economic variables to watch closely. But what isn’t often discussed are the three that should be ignored. We’ll bring you those soon!

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Top 10 Market and Economic Variables to Watch…and 3 to Ignore – Part II

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A couple weeks ago we told you the first of 10 variables to look for in the economy – Earnings Momentum and High Yield Spread. Here are the next four variables.

8. The Bond Market

The bond market, specifically, the 10-year Treasury note, may offer clues on the direction of the economy. Since the U.S. bond market is the largest and most liquid market in the world, the 10-year Treasury has often been used as a “fear” trade. When global uncertainty looms, investors seek a safe harbor against uncertainty and move into the U.S. bond market. As prices increase and yields move lower, this move has been an indicator that economic growth is in question.

The most recent trading range of the 10-year Treasury note has been between 2.4 and 3.0 percent, suggesting we will see moderate economic growth for the remainder of the year. Due to improving economic activity, a stable employment horizon and a hint of inflation, we think the 10-year Treasury will close the year around 3 percent.

7. Help Wanted Signs

Inflation can come in many forms, such as commodity inflation, wage inflation, and so on. The Federal Reserve (Fed) focuses on an inflation index called the “core personal consumption expenditures”(PCE), which excludes food and energy. Historically, food and energy inflation have been very volatile, and therefore are excluded in this index. We think wage inflation is the sustainable inflation. U.S. average hourly earnings have grown less than 2.5 percent each year for the last five years.  However, as the labor market tightens, we would expect some wage inflation. Job openings peaked in 2007 prior to the Great Recession.

Since 2009 job openings have been on the rise.  As the labor market gets tighter, we think it will lead to a continued increase in core inflation.

6. Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Lending Standards

Banks and credit are the lifeblood of the economy. When credit is readily available, business owners are more willing to expand their business and hire workers. Lending standards lead payroll growth by approximately nine months. In the middle of the recessions in 2001 and 2008, lending standards improved, and it was a clear signal that job growth was right around the corner.

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Surveys measure the tightening or loosening of loan standards, and there has been a dramatic improvement since 2010. C&I loan growth is up over 10 percent so far this year and we have seen an average of 215,000 jobs created each month in 2014, substantially better than last year.

5. The Slope of the Yield Curve

The shape of the yield curve (the difference between short and long rates) gives insight to economic growth. A very steep yield curve would indicate strong economic growth prospects, and an inverted yield curve (short rates higher than long rates) has an impressive track record of predicting an oncoming recession. The yield curve inverted a year prior to the recessions in 1980, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2008. In fact, in the past half century, the yield curve has inverted prior to each recession.

Even though we saw the economy contract in the first quarter of 2014, we are confident that this is an anomaly since the yield curve is so steeply sloped.

Later this month, we’ll bring you the rest of the Top 10 variables to watch.

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Top 10 Market and Economic Variables to Watch…and 3 to Ignore – Part I

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At its core, investment management involves researching thousands of variables and data points. Careful analysis is required of all of these variables and data points to create a “mosaic of information” in order to draw a conclusion on market and economic directions. With the 24/7 news cycle, investors have more data, surveys and reports in front of them than ever before.

In the spirit of a classic David Letterman Top Ten, we’ve put together our own list, but with a twist at the end. KC visited The Street and The Hays Advantage on Bloomberg Radio to share his insights.

Watch…

ListenKC Mathews on the Hays Advantage

Below are the first two market and economic variables to watch in order to make sound decisions. In the next parts of this series, we’ll bring you more variables and three that perhaps, should be ignored. Let us worry about the rest of the noise.

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10. Earnings Momentum

We are fundamental investors and believe that the primary driver of equity prices is earnings. Regardless of short-term noise that may move markets, sooner or later earnings and earnings momentum will determine market direction.

There is a 77 percent positive correlation between earnings and equity prices. Occasionally you will see equity prices deviate from earnings growth due to various reasons. Since 1955, however, earnings have grown 6.5 percent annually, and the S&P 500 has increased about the same, growing 7 percent on average. In 2014, earnings were up 5 percent and valuations increased by 25 percent, resulting in the S&P 500 posting a 32 percent return.

We expect earnings growth to be in the 4 to 6 percent range this year and continue to expect positive returns in equities. We would not be surprised, though, if we experience a meaningful correction to get earnings and market performance back in line.


9. High Yield Spreads

High yield spreads will usually precede or confirm a material correction in the equity market.  We define a material correction as a decrease of 10 percent or more and haven’t seen this type of a correction since June 2012. Market corrections are a normal and healthy part of a secular bull market. As the domestic equity markets continue to increase, the probability of a meaningful correction also increases. Historically, changes in high yield spreads have either signaled or confirmed a correction in the equity market. For example, in early 1998, high yield spreads widened 65 basis points suggesting an oncoming correction. As expected, a 15 percent mid-year correction followed.  Again, spreads widened by 90 basis points in the summer of 2007, right before the peak of the S&P 500.

In the past two years we have seen smaller corrections ranging from 4 to 7 percent with virtually no widening of high yield spreads. This tells us the meaningful correction has not yet occurred, nor is a correction on the near-term horizon.

Remember to check back for the rest of the variables to watch (and ignore) next month!

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Hometown Perspective: Kansas

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You know you can count on us to provide insights into national and global economic outlook, but what about the business outlook where you live? Gil Trout, Chairman & CEO of Kansas and Oklahoma, gives us some perspective on how Kansas is looking this year. Hint: it’s good news.

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Mr. Trout joined UMB in 1988. As Regional CEO for Kansas and Oklahoma, he is responsible for the profitability, leadership development and commercial banking oversight of his regions. Mr. Trout has over 25 years of experience in the financial industry. He earned his MBA from Avila University, and his Executive Leadership Certificate from Washington University.



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If the economy was a movie, “The Sequel” would be better than the original

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Find out why 2014’s economic forecast is looking promising

2014 the Sequel

The beginning of a new year means it’s time to hit the road – literally. Every January and February the UMB Private Wealth Management division visits nearly a dozen cities to deliver UMB’s annual economic forecast presentation to clients. The theme of this year’s presentation is “The Sequel.” Never short on drama, the economic story this year draws a parallel to a movie sequel, although, we believe it will be better than the original (2013’s forecast).

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Last year’s economic theme, “The Policy Basin,” predicted slow or low, basin-like growth. Most companies weren’t ready to begin hiring yet; capital expenditures were mainly on hold and consumer spending was noticeably low – clearly still on the defense from the Great Recession of 2008. And, that is exactly how the economic picture played out last year.

As an extension to last year’s theme, this year’s economic picture is slowly but surely looking better. We predict real GDP will improve from 1.9 percent in 2013 to 2.7 percent this year. This will be driven by the following factors:

  • There will be an increase in consumption as consumers perhaps end the deleveraging phase and enter the re-leveraging phase.
  • Increased spending in state and local governments is expected, as these entities will benefit from a boost in property, sales and other tax revenue. All but seven states have indicated that they intend to increase spending from 2013.
  • We believe better economic growth in 2014 will generate close to 200,000 additional jobs per month, which is up from 185,000 per month last year. This growth in additional jobs should reduce the U.S. unemployment rate to 6.0 percent by the end of the year, down from the 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.

We are looking forward to 2014 delivering more employment, improved consumer sentiment and strong GDP growth. And while this year’s economic story might not be a blockbuster, we believe it will be a positive year with good storylines for consumers and businesses, and if managed correctly, for investors as well.

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

UMB Investment Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals. UMB Financial Services, Inc.*  is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Investment Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Investment Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Investment Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither UMB Investment Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Investment Products Offered Through UMB Financial Services, Inc

Member FINRA, SIPC

NOT FDIC INSURED/ NO BANK GUARANTEE/ MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Federal Reserve Exit Plan

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UMB Bank’s Chief Investment Officer KC Mathews and his team recently gathered for a round table discussion regarding the Federal Reserve’s exit plan. The Fed’s decision not to begin tapering the stimulus was a largely unanticipated move for the financial markets. As explained in detail during this podcast, the Fed based this decision on data correlated with employment, inflation, the debt ceiling and housing recovery.

Learn what this latest move means for investors.

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UMB Investment Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals. UMB Financial Services, Inc.*  is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Investment Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Investment Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Investment Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither UMB Investment Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Investment Products Offered Through UMB Financial Services, Inc

Member FINRA, SIPC

NOT FDIC INSURED/ NO BANK GUARANTEE/ MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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