Blog   Economic Outlook

Hometown Perspective: Kansas

  |  Posted by

You know you can count on us to provide insights into national and global economic outlook, but what about the business outlook where you live? Gil Trout, Chairman & CEO of Kansas and Oklahoma, gives us some perspective on how Kansas is looking this year. Hint: it’s good news.

Continue Reading

Mr. Trout joined UMB in 1988. As Regional CEO for Kansas and Oklahoma, he is responsible for the profitability, leadership development and commercial banking oversight of his regions. Mr. Trout has over 25 years of experience in the financial industry. He earned his MBA from Avila University, and his Executive Leadership Certificate from Washington University.

Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , ,

If the economy was a movie, “The Sequel” would be better than the original

  |  Posted by

Find out why 2014’s economic forecast is looking promising

2014 the Sequel

The beginning of a new year means it’s time to hit the road – literally. Every January and February the UMB Private Wealth Management division visits nearly a dozen cities to deliver UMB’s annual economic forecast presentation to clients. The theme of this year’s presentation is “The Sequel.” Never short on drama, the economic story this year draws a parallel to a movie sequel, although, we believe it will be better than the original (2013’s forecast).

Continue Reading

Last year’s economic theme, “The Policy Basin,” predicted slow or low, basin-like growth. Most companies weren’t ready to begin hiring yet; capital expenditures were mainly on hold and consumer spending was noticeably low – clearly still on the defense from the Great Recession of 2008. And, that is exactly how the economic picture played out last year.

As an extension to last year’s theme, this year’s economic picture is slowly but surely looking better. We predict real GDP will improve from 1.9 percent in 2013 to 2.7 percent this year. This will be driven by the following factors:

  • There will be an increase in consumption as consumers perhaps end the deleveraging phase and enter the re-leveraging phase.
  • Increased spending in state and local governments is expected, as these entities will benefit from a boost in property, sales and other tax revenue. All but seven states have indicated that they intend to increase spending from 2013.
  • We believe better economic growth in 2014 will generate close to 200,000 additional jobs per month, which is up from 185,000 per month last year. This growth in additional jobs should reduce the U.S. unemployment rate to 6.0 percent by the end of the year, down from the 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.

We are looking forward to 2014 delivering more employment, improved consumer sentiment and strong GDP growth. And while this year’s economic story might not be a blockbuster, we believe it will be a positive year with good storylines for consumers and businesses, and if managed correctly, for investors as well.

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

UMB Investment Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals. UMB Financial Services, Inc.*  is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Investment Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Investment Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Investment Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither UMB Investment Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Investment Products Offered Through UMB Financial Services, Inc

Member FINRA, SIPC

NOT FDIC INSURED/ NO BANK GUARANTEE/ MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.

Leave a Comment

Federal Reserve Exit Plan

  |  Posted by

UMB Bank’s Chief Investment Officer KC Mathews and his team recently gathered for a round table discussion regarding the Federal Reserve’s exit plan. The Fed’s decision not to begin tapering the stimulus was a largely unanticipated move for the financial markets. As explained in detail during this podcast, the Fed based this decision on data correlated with employment, inflation, the debt ceiling and housing recovery.

Learn what this latest move means for investors.

Continue Reading

UMB Investment Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals. UMB Financial Services, Inc.*  is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Investment Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Investment Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Investment Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither UMB Investment Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Investment Products Offered Through UMB Financial Services, Inc

Member FINRA, SIPC

NOT FDIC INSURED/ NO BANK GUARANTEE/ MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.

Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , , , , ,

The Calm after the Storm? Or the Eye of the Storm?

  |  Posted by

Recently UMB Bank Chief Investment Officer KC Mathews and his team connected with clients to discuss some of the market’s most pressing issues. The Fed tapering, our interest rate forecast, the recent movements in the municipal bond market and an updated economic outlook were discussed.

Interested in what was discussed? Listen to the podcast here.

Continue Reading

 

UMB Investment Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals. UMB Financial Services, Inc.*  is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Investment Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Investment Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Investment Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither UMB Investment Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Investment Products Offered Through UMB Financial Services, Inc

Member FINRA, SIPC

NOT FDIC INSURED/ NO BANK GUARANTEE/ MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.

Read One Comment

Tagged: , , , , , ,