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Monthly Media Update – August

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CNBC discusses the impact of the political drama in Washington on the markets with our CIO, UMB’s Texas team talks about its expansion into Fort Worth’s iconic 777 building, our healthcare services CEO shares tips for employers to help employees be more financially secure, and why our personal banking president thinks each generation should have a retirement plan as distinct as their taste in pop culture are a few media coverage highlights from August.

Stay informed on industry trends and noteworthy company news by visiting our UMB in the News section on umb.com, which is updated weekly for timely viewing.

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UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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August Outlook by the Numbers

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Do you have questions on the housing market, labor market and interest rates? Check out UMB Investment Management team’s August 2017 Outlook by the Numbers for a quick snapshot on these and other economic drivers.

Also, be sure to review the following videos, articles and interviews for more market and wealth management information…

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*Bloomberg Radio with Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz (audio): UMB’s Mathews: People Conflated Trump Bump With Earnings Rally ‡

*CNBC (video): Tech leadership names will likely rotate

*BloombergMaybe ETFs Aren’t the Reason You Can’t Find Any Stocks to Buy

*CNBC (video): Avoid the Political Distractions

*Ingram’s Magazine: Gray Expectations

*Colorado Biz Magazine: How to Stay Cool as Markets Heat Up

Interested in learning more about our Private Wealth Management division? See what we mean when we say, “Your story. Our focus.

Follow UMB‡ on LinkedIn to stay informed of the latest economic trends.

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Monthly Media Update – July

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NPR discusses the fears of a emerging farm crisis with our ag division, CNBC Powerlunch and Bloomberg Radio talk to UMB’s CIO, our Colorado Springs community bank president supports the city’s downtown redevelopment, and why hospitals are spending millions of dollars developing electronic health records are a few media coverage highlights from July.

Stay informed on industry trends and noteworthy company news by visiting our UMB in the News section on umb.com, which is updated weekly for timely viewing.

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UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Market Minutes: Earnings, Tech Stocks and Valuations

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Chief Investment Officer KC Mathews recently shared his thoughts on current market conditions with Bloomberg and CNBC. Review the below media highlights to learn more about items he’s watching.

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*Bloomberg Radio with Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz (audio): UMB’s Mathews: People Conflated Trump Bump With Earnings Rally ‡

*CNBC (video): Tech leadership names will likely rotate

*Bloomberg: Maybe ETFs Aren’t the Reason You Can’t Find Any Stocks to Buy

Also, read KC’s recent economic articles, which give more detailed information on where we’ve been and where we’re headed.

Follow UMB‡ and KC Mathews‡ on LinkedIn to stay informed of the latest economic trends.

Interested in learning more about our Private Wealth Management division? See what we mean when we say, “Your story is our focus.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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July Outlook by the Numbers

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Do you have questions on the housing market, labor market and interest rates? Check out UMB Investment Management team’s July 2017 Outlook by the Numbers for a quick snapshot on these and other economic drivers.

Also, be sure to review the following articles for more market and wealth management information…

Continue Reading

Follow UMB‡ on LinkedIn to stay informed of the latest economic trends.

 Interested in learning more about our Private Wealth Management division? See what we mean when we say, “Your story is our focus.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Active, Passive or Complementary Investing?

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The Yin and Yang of Investing

In Chinese philosophy, yin and yang describe how seemingly opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected and interdependent in the natural world. When you look at portfolio management, passive (indexing) and active strategies are the yin and yang of investing.

However, most of the debate around passive versus active investing comes from those advocating for one approach over the other.

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We, on the other hand, believe they are complementary and not mutually exclusive. Based on our research, neither an all-passive, nor all-active portfolio, is an optimized portfolio. Rather, optimal appears somewhere in the middle, hence our comparison to yin and yang.

The Case for Passive

  1. Narrow-Based Market

For many years, the S&P 500 performance has been driven by a small number of stocks. Portfolios that do not own a handful of these stellar performing stocks will underperform. In years where the S&P 500’s total return is between three and 11 percent, a few select stocks drive the market’s return.

The median number of stocks driving the market is 10. So far, this year is no different. The S&P 500 is up seven percent, and 12 stocks are dominating performance.

When the market is narrow-based, including passive investments in a portfolio is clearly beneficial.

  1. Fees

Passive funds simply replicate an index like the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000 and have lower management fees than actively managed funds. Fees negatively impact a fund’s performance, and over the years there has been downward pressure on management fees on both passive and active managers.

Remember, though, fees should be part of the investment process, not drive the investment process. Is the least expensive automobile the right one for you and your family? Perhaps not.

  1. Efficient Markets

There is an academic theory called the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) that suggests it is impossible to beat the market. If the market is efficient, share prices reflect all relevant information and trade at fair value; therefore, active managers can’t outperform the market.

I would counter that some markets are efficient and others are far from it. For example, from 2009 to 2016, 80 percent of domestic, large capitalization managers underperformed the S&P 500, suggesting it is efficient. However, in the same period, 60 percent of domestic small capitalization managers beat the Russell 2000, suggesting it is inefficient.

The jury is still out on EMH. However, it is clear that some markets and asset classes are more efficient than others, once again supporting the yin and yang case of using both active and passive investments in your portfolio.

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The Case for Active

  1. Valuation

The narrow-based market argument suggested that, at times, a few stocks drive the market. This year is no different. The top 10 performing stocks year-to-date trade at 3.4 times sales. The S&P 500 trades at 2.5 times sales, and the bottom 490 stocks in the index trade at 1.9 times sales.

However, we believe that over entire market cycles, valuation matters. Historically, sooner or later, overvalued stocks underperform and undervalued stocks outperform.

Most active managers attempt to buy undervalued stocks. By doing this, they can control risk and perform well over a market cycle.

  1. Quality

If the index was dissected into high-quality stocks (rated A+ to B+) and low-quality stocks (rated below B), as defined by Standard and Poor’s, it would show they perform differently at various times.

Low-quality stocks outperform during the early stages of a cyclical bull market, while high-quality stocks perform best in a bear market. Of course the index owns both high- and low-quality names.

When safety trumps valuation, high-quality names will protect the portfolio. Thirty-one percent of the companies in the Russell 2000 index lost money last year, while high-quality stocks have not experienced negative returns over any 10-year period since 1986. Typically, active managers search for quality investments.

  1. Dividends

Dividends play two important roles. First, they can be a material factor in total return. If stock prices appreciate five percent and there is a three percent dividend yield, the total return is eight percent. Importantly, 37.5 percent of the total return came from dividends.

Second, as companies pay and increase dividends, it sends a message that management is confident that earnings will increase. Since 1972, stocks that increase or initiate their dividend have outperformed the market by 2.6 times. During this period, dividend growers and initiators returned 10 percent annually versus the S&P 500’s 7.6 percent.

Active managers can build portfolios that seek out stocks with attractive and growing dividends.

All Investing is Active

Portfolio management requires numerous decisions. Asset allocation is paramount—which asset classes should be in the portfolio, and what allocation?  Even if passive securities are to be used, which index is appropriate?

For example, the 2016 return for three passive small capitalization exchange traded funds, each with their own underlying index, had an eight percent return variance:

  • iShares Core S&P Small Cap, 26 percent return
  • iShares Russell 2000, 21 percent return
  • Vanguard Small Cap ETF, 18 percent return

Every component of portfolio management requires a well thought-out and researched decision. Thus, all investing is active.

The Yin and Yang

Passive and active management styles are not opposite or contrary; they are complementary. Given our research, we believe using both styles strategically in portfolio management creates an equilibrium and holistic strategy.

This article originally ran in the Colorado Biz Magazine on July 5, 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read our full perspective by clicking here or learn more about our Private Wealth Management division. See what we mean when we say, “Your story is our focus.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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A Look at Mariner Kemper’s Office Art Collection

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What kind of art do you think President and CEO Mariner Kemper keeps in his office? Take a look at the fun and historical art adorning the walls of his bank office in this Denver Business Journal  report by Monica Mendoza.

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UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Corporate Earnings and Fidget Spinners

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What do corporate profits and fidget spinners have in common?

Happiness.

While parents may never understand fidget spinners, kids sure love them. Trendy toys make kids happy, even if we don’t understand the intrigue. While we expect fidget spinner fascination to wane and follow the path of prior fads, such as the pet rock, Furbys and silly bands, we expect the opposite of corporate earnings.

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We believe corporate earnings are moving to trend status and have the staying power to grow for the next eight quarters. And this will translate to happiness in the market. Stock markets do well when corporate earnings are stronger than expected, as earnings are the lifeblood of the market.

July 10 marks the unofficial start to second quarter earnings season, and we expect earnings growth momentum to continue based on the following data.

Shift from Earnings Recession to Earnings Expansion

Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2014, corporate earnings evaporated, starting an earnings recession that lasted until the third quarter of 2016 when earnings finally posted a slightly positive gain.

The first quarter of 2017 recorded strong earnings growth of 17.8 percent and sales growth of 8.5 percent. Wage inflation, commodity costs, margins, and share repurchases boosted (and will continue to boost) earnings growth.

Additionally, easy year-over-year comparisons helped these numbers, as earnings declined 5.0 percent last year during the same time period.

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Industries We’re Watching

Technology and finance sectors are expected to have the highest growth rates among all S&P 500 sectors.

  • Strong demand for cloud-based services and cell phones are leading growth for technology.
  • In the finance sector, the recent increase in interest rates bode well for banks as expanding margins can make more profit on the money they lend out relative to their interest paid on deposits such as checking/savings accounts. Additionally, higher rates should help offset weaker than expected loan growth trends.

Key Drivers: A Look Ahead

Sustainable corporate earnings growth is driven by economic activity and GDP growth, and corporate earnings are highly correlated. Economic global growth continues to improve, with China and Europe’s economic data showing signs of green shoots, and we see a pick-up in domestic growth as well.

We expect second quarter earnings to increase eight percent and revenue growth to grow four percent.

Timing the Earnings Tailwind

The promise of fiscal stimulus is a tailwind for corporate earnings. Tax reform, reduced regulation and infrastructure spending have the potential to increase earnings by 10 to 15 percent.

However, there are two issues with fiscal stimulus. The first is timing—how quickly will things develop? Given current conditions, it appears this will be a 2018 event.

Secondly, fiscal stimulus has a short-term impact on economies and markets. Historically, when you are late in an economic cycle like we are now, fiscal stimulus is effective for only four or five quarters.

Therefore, while potential fiscal stimulus is positive for the long-term, investors will have to exercise some patience and understand that they may be shorter-lived when they are realized.

The Broader View

We have a positive view on the economy and expect GDP to grow at 2.2 percent in 2017. Over time, S&P 500 revenue growth has had a multiplier of 1.5 times GDP growth. This GDP multiplier, plus an expected rebound in oil, supports our 5 percent revenue growth for 2017.

All things considered, we believe the next few quarters of corporate earnings are going to be a trend that will bode well for the markets. Meanwhile, children will continue to play with their fidget spinners – or the next greatest fad – and everyone will be happy.

Follow UMB‡ and KC Mathews‡ on LinkedIn to stay informed of the latest economic trends.

Interested in learning more about our Private Wealth Management division? See what we mean when we say, “Your story is our focus.

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews is executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute.

Will Reese is a senior securities analyst for the Private Wealth Management division at UMB. He has an Bachelor of Science degree in psychology from the University of Kansas and a Master of Business Administration degree with an emphasis in finance from Avila University. In his role, Will monitors and maintains departmental equity working lists, recommends stocks for external clients, and provides equity research and analysis for internal customers.




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Summer InSight: Retirement, Cash Flow, Loans and the Economy

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Summertime marks the mid-point of the year, so now is a good time to take a moment to check in on your full financial picture, including a review of your goals and progress you’ve made toward milestones. Statistics show almost four million Americans anticipate retiring in the next 15 years, and there are key considerations that can help anyone prepare, whether retirement is right around the corner or 20 years away.

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We encourage everyone to have a solid plan for retirement, which begins with understanding your core numbers: anticipated age of retirement, how much income you’ll need to maintain your current lifestyle after retirement, and the value of your assets and cash savings. Having a clear picture of your current and future states makes establishing priorities simpler. Keeping these numbers in mind as you make other financial decisions ensures your goals and choices remain in alignment.

While retirement planning is critical for your future, there will always be plenty of present-day matters to attend to. This issue of InSight covers several topics related to life events and the economy. Beth Brown, senior vice president and senior wealth advisor, discusses steps to consider when you are faced with an unexpected financial windfall to help ensure your plan supports your objectives. Shelly Addington, vice president and private banking client manager, provides an educational construction loan overview, including what you can expect from the process from start to finish. And KC Mathews, UMB Bank executive vice president and chief investment officer, delivers an economic analysis that covers the impacts of political and policy shifts.

For more details on these and other financial matters, read the full Insight issue or visit our Private Wealth Management page.


Dana Abraham is president of the Personal Banking Division and is responsible for the delivery of comprehensive financial services for consumers across UMB's footprint. She joined UMB in 2005 and has more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. Dana earned a bachelor’s degree in business administration with a concentration in both accounting and economics from the University of Louisiana. She is a graduate of Leadership Overland Park and Kansas City Tomorrow Leadership programs.



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Are you ready for retirement?

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It is anticipated that almost four million Americans will retire in the next 15 years, forcing many to face the question, “Am I ready for retirement?” As this growing number of Americans consider the next chapter in their lives, they are discovering a gap in their retirement plan.

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Retirement is one of the largest transitions a person will encounter in their lifetime, yet only one-third of Americans feel they are financially prepared. According to Mintel’s April 2017 Consumers and the Economic Outlook report, 11 percent of Americans nearing retirement age are preparing to look for new, higher-paying jobs as a way to improve their financial situation.

By proactively planning and establishing priorities in advance, individuals will be better equipped to have a successful transition into their golden years. Whether retirement is right around the corner or 20 years away, these key considerations can help establish a level-set for retirement preparation.

What’s your number?

First ask yourself “How much money do I need to live?” and “How much money do I have?” These questions can help establish a goal and define areas that should be closely analyzed. If financial gaps exist, assess and determine how to fill them.

It is important to consider the financial implications of several critical areas, including:

  • Average living expenses
  • Healthcare
  • Mortgage or rent
  • Property and other tax obligations
  • Charitable giving
  • Legacy considerations

How much and how long do you want to work?

Over the last 15 years, a shift has been taking place—it no longer has to be “all or nothing” when it comes to employment. More people are retiring in stages, or semi-retiring. Instead of completely stepping away from a career, they might transition out of a role slowly.

Additionally, many Americans are planning to work longer or stay involved in their businesses beyond what is considered traditional retirement. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, almost 20 percent of Americans 65 and older are now working.

Think about where you would like to be on this spectrum to help determine when, and to what degree, your earning potential will change.

Establish priorities

If the priority is retirement, establish goals and create a plan first and foremost. Perform an in-depth analysis of the entire financial portfolio to assess total assets and decide if retirement goals are achievable. Determine if your portfolio assets can support your desired lifestyle during retirement. If a path to retirement is clear, then begin to think about secondary priorities; these could include leaving a legacy, charitable giving or the opportunity to travel more often. If the path to retirement isn’t clear or if financial assets come up short, consider putting off retirement for a few years, saving more money, adjusting an estimated living plan or reassessing assets.

Create a clear plan

Planning is the most important aspect of a successful transition into retirement. Planning early and reevaluating often is critical. One way to establish a sound financial plan is to work with a financial advisor, who can help you not only establish goals, but work to make them a reality.

Additionally, financial advisors can help counsel families where members may have different goals or considerations that need to be taken into account. They can help communicate each person’s unique goals and assist families in creating a shared plan that meets everyone’s needs.

Finally, they can also track your progress and help identify any changes you may need to make along the way.

For anyone considering retirement, asking the important questions, creating a strategic plan and consistently evaluating progress can help lead to a successful transition. Working with a financial advisor can alleviate questions and ensure that a plan is being considered from all angles, providing valuable support for this life transition.

Interested in learning more about our Private Wealth Management division? See what we mean when we say, “Your story is our focus.


Dana Abraham is president of the Personal Banking Division and is responsible for the delivery of comprehensive financial services for consumers across UMB's footprint. She joined UMB in 2005 and has more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. Dana earned a bachelor’s degree in business administration with a concentration in both accounting and economics from the University of Louisiana. She is a graduate of Leadership Overland Park and Kansas City Tomorrow Leadership programs.



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