Blog   Tagged ‘economy’

More holiday sales = economic growth (Part II)

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Our Chief Investment Officer reports on the outcome of his predictions made before Black Friday.

See below for more…

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Before Thanksgiving, we suggested that today’s consumers are financially healthier than in past years, which, we think, will drive a robust holiday spending season.

Some of the numbers reported appeared to be a bit Grinch-like. The National Retail Federation reported that Thanksgiving weekend sales were down 11 percent and online sales posted negative growth as well.

Our research at UMB leads us to a more cheerful conclusion, for two primary reasons.

  • Black Friday appears to be losing its reserve. You may recall that in the past retailers competed with one another to be the first store to open on Friday morning. Then they began opening the stores on Thanksgiving. Fast forward to today, when many retailers have promotional items on display prior to the holiday. Perhaps Black Friday has become Black November, meaning that the window of shopping days to be analyzed has become longer than just one weekend.
  • Several online retailers announced robust sales gains. We believe online sales are growing nearly 30 percent this season. We think this is due to the adoption of mobile technology. Since online retailers are open 24/7, so is the option to shop. We are also seeing a shift from brick and mortar stores to online retailers and we expect this trend to continue.

The retail sales data, along with other recently released economic data, supports our forecast of greater than 3 percent GDP growth in the fourth quarter, giving us nice momentum into 2015.

In Part I of this report, we anticipated material job growth this holiday season. The non-farm payroll growth in November proved that to be accurate with a gain of 321,000 jobs, again, supporting GDP growth of well over 3 percent.

Clearly the labor market is strengthening. Unemployment stands at 5.8 percent, and we think it will continue to head lower throughout 2015. Job openings are at a level we haven’t seen since 2001.

The labor market, along with higher stock and home prices and lower energy costs, has boosted consumer confidence. So it was no surprise to us that the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index has risen to a seven-year high.

Lastly, manufacturing data in the United States is hovering around a three-year high, also supporting our GDP forecast.

The bottom line is that all signs are leading us to believe that consumption will continue at a healthy pace. Since consumption is almost 70 percent of GDP, we think economic growth in 2015 will be between 3 to 3.5 percent; significantly higher than what we have seen throughout the last five years.

Given our optimistic economic outlook, we expect to see favorable returns in the stock market. In 2015 we expect 4 percent revenue growth and 6 percent earnings growth — that should lead to 10 percent total returns.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Manufacturing and Technology Part IV: Q&A

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Our audience was filled with manufacturers with workforce issues. If you’re in the same boat, check out the answers to these common questions.

In case you missed it earlier on the blog: our expert panelists explained how they find the right employees for their organizations, reach out to high school graduates and tackle advanced manufacturing.

 

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Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arizona. It also has a loan production office in Texas. Subsidiaries of the holding company include mutual fund and alternative investment services groups, single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services and insurance, and a registered investment advisor that manages the company's proprietary mutual funds and investment advisory accounts for institutional customers.



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Manufacturing and Technology Part III

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3-D printing and advanced manufacturing are hot topics in the manufacturing and technology industry that our panelists tackled at a recent thought leadership event.

Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

In case you missed it earlier on the blog: our expert panelists explained how they find the right employees for their organizations and reach out to high school graduates.

Later this month, we’ll bring you more answers to some frequently asked questions.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arizona. It also has a loan production office in Texas. Subsidiaries of the holding company include mutual fund and alternative investment services groups, single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services and insurance, and a registered investment advisor that manages the company's proprietary mutual funds and investment advisory accounts for institutional customers.



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How to take advantage of your banking partner

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Is your bank helping you make money?

Optimism is on the rise among business owners. This is the first year coming out of a down cycle in the economy and businesses are ready to grow. They are looking to expand operations, hire new talent and purchase new equipment. But they are also searching for new strategies, financing options and ideas for better market penetration. In today’s economy, one of the best partners a business can have is their banker. Ask yourself if your banker is:

  • bringing more to the table than monthly reports or the weekly “how’s it going” call
  • strategizing with business owners on how to expand operations, create more efficiencies and generate more revenue
  • understanding every aspect of a business, from cash flow to risk management and payroll to IT services.

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Here are a few areas bankers can help businesses strategically grow and profit in today’s economy.

How Does Your Cash Flow?

Most business owners talk about the importance of cash flow, but not many go deep into the process and determine how to make it better. Businesses need to ask questions such as: How many days does it take to collect on receivables? How long are you paying on collectables? Are you getting discounts for paying early?

A lot of companies are operating inefficiently.  They are duplicating internal steps or making extra steps to receive money. It costs $2 to $5 to mail a check, whereas sending an Automated Clearing House (ACH) payment costs less than $1. Businesses need to review how much time it takes to print, stuff and mail a check versus using a card or ACH payment.

By working closely with a banker, businesses can gain cash flow relief and create better efficiencies in their operations. Bankers also can help business owners create a profitable and logical cash flow system.

Risk Management and Efficiency

Risk management is exactly what it sounds like. Anything businesses can do to manage risk will ultimately benefit their bottom line. This includes having dual controls with employees, doing regular inventory checks, having different people sign off on checks and having a process to detect and deter internal and external fraud. So much risk can be diverted simply by paying attention to the small, everyday details.

Risk efficiency is something bankers also should discuss with businesses as it relates to items such as outsourcing payroll or return collections. Often times there are functions that businesses can outsource to save time and money. One of the main things to be outsourced is payroll. A payroll provider can help save a company time and money. They may also accept tax liability so the employer isn’t responsible for tax penalties.

For companies with large receivables, it may be more efficient to have a lockbox or outsourced collection system. Bankers can greatly reduce time and efforts for clients that have high receivables. Another area to outsource is IT. Businesses can outsource their IT needs to a third-party group in order to save time, headaches and money.

Creating Operational Efficiencies

Bankers understand cash and business cycles. They can help a business create operational efficiencies in several areas, including payments, cash flow cycles, commercial cards, reconciliation and so on.

One example is the process of purchasing equipment. As businesses expand their work, make repairs or replace units, they may find themselves making multiple purchases throughout the year. Rather than go through the process of taking out a separate loan for each investment, companies should map out their anticipated needs for the year and take out a line that will cover all potential investments. Not only will this save time, but it also provides flexibility to buy new or used equipment and to proactively plan for capital expenditures they may want to make during the year.

Purchasing cards are another item to consider from a processing standpoint. Not only does the right program provide valuable rewards, but it also cuts down on check writing and provides increased flexibility in cash flow. Additionally, it creates a more streamlined tracking system for accounting departments. By allowing job numbers to be attached to specific expenses, companies can easily allocate costs to the appropriate projects, which results in more effective planning and budgeting.

By working closely with a banker, businesses truly have the opportunity to expand and grow through creating efficiencies in areas they never knew could be improved. Any operational, cash or risk management improvement will ultimately improve a company’s bottom line and their outlook for future growth opportunities.


Mr. Bibens is a treasury management officer for UMB’s Commercial Deposits department. He is responsible for providing consultative technology and cash flow management solutions to companies and public entities throughout the Greater Missouri area. He joined UMB in 2010 and has 10 years of experience in the financial services industry.



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More holiday sales = economic growth

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Black Friday is only 10 days away! Will you brave the mall? As you stand in the long lines, we’ll give you some tidbits to think about with how your purchases play a part in boosting the economy this holiday season.

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This year retailers are expecting much more than a lump of coal. Major retailers and shipping companies are expecting holiday sales to increase more than 4 percent. We haven’t seen 4 percent growth since 2011. Throughout the last decade, holiday sales have averaged 2.9 percent growth.

Many retailers have already announced significant hiring plans to meet the demand—so seasonal workers may be up as much as 10 percent from last year. A couple of primary shipping companies are even doubling their holiday workforce largely due to demand coming from e-commerce.
1So while you can see that most of the economic data in the United States supports a rather jolly shopping season, we can’t ignore some risks that could shake consumer confidence. A correction in the stock market, or signs of a recession in Europe are events that would in – fact, affect this forecast.

However, we strongly believe that consumers are in better financial health for a number of reasons:

  • Household net worth is at an all time high. This is due to higher stock and home prices.
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  • The labor market is solid. Unemployment is less than 6 percent and job growth has been increasing at a nice pace. These employment gains should continue as there are 4.8 million job openings, a level we haven’t seen since 2001.
  • You are probably noticing lower prices at the pump as well. That translates to more disposable income in consumer’s pockets.
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  • And finally, consumer confidence has been trending up since the Great Recession. And when we feel good about things, we consume.

There are even more factors that point to a better holiday season than last year:

  • Last year the government shutdown in the fourth quarter may have shaken consumer confidence and affected spending – we aren’t facing that situation this year.
  • Unseasonably cold and stormy weather led to some store closings across the nation.
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  • Lastly, in 2013 there were six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to 2012. This year there is one additional day, which makes year over year comparable sale easier to beat.

We think this holiday shopping season will support our forecast of 3 percent economic growth in the fourth quarter.  We also expect to see positive returns in the domestic stock markets.

I wish all of you a happy and healthy holiday season. I’ll be back to deliver part two of this forecast after Thanksgiving.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Manufacturing and Technology: Attracting a New Workforce

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Last month our expert panelists explained how they find the right employees for their organizations. Now these manufacturing and technology industry leaders tackle the topic of education and attracting the next generation to the workforce.

Kim Maddigan (CEO, AdamWorks) says the industry needs to reintroduce manufacturing as an appealing career option for young people in the United States. The panelists also discuss whether or not internships and job shadowing are a helpful approach.

Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

Next month, we’ll bring you the panelists’ answers to some frequently asked questions.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arizona. It also has a loan production office in Texas. Subsidiaries of the holding company include mutual fund and alternative investment services groups, single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services and insurance, and a registered investment advisor that manages the company's proprietary mutual funds and investment advisory accounts for institutional customers.



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Manufacturing and Technology: A New Workforce Dynamic

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How do you find the right employees for your organization? A panelist of leaders in the manufacturing industry shared their struggles and successes with the ever-changing workforce.

Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

Next month, we’ll bring you these panelists’ insights on education and technology advancements.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arizona. It also has a loan production office in Texas. Subsidiaries of the holding company include mutual fund and alternative investment services groups, single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services and insurance, and a registered investment advisor that manages the company's proprietary mutual funds and investment advisory accounts for institutional customers.



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Hometown Perspective: St. Louis

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Tom Chulick, Chairman and CEO of UMB St. Louis, gives his point of view on the uniqueness of banking in St. Louis. He also talks about the benefit of having a long-term relationship with your financial institution that involves diversification and risk management.

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Mr. Chulick joined UMB in 2007. As Chairman and CEO UMB-St. Louis and President, Midwest Regions UMB (including St. Louis, Greater Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Omaha), he oversees all activities and lines of business for the financial service company in the St. Louis market. He has 29 years of experience in the financial industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as Senior Vice President and Private Client Advisor at Bank of America. Mr. Chulick earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from Rockhurst University.



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Top 10 Market and Economic Variables to Watch…and 3 to Ignore – Part I

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At its core, investment management involves researching thousands of variables and data points. Careful analysis is required of all of these variables and data points to create a “mosaic of information” in order to draw a conclusion on market and economic directions. With the 24/7 news cycle, investors have more data, surveys and reports in front of them than ever before.

In the spirit of a classic David Letterman Top Ten, we’ve put together our own list, but with a twist at the end. KC visited The Street and The Hays Advantage on Bloomberg Radio to share his insights.

Watch…

ListenKC Mathews on the Hays Advantage

Below are the first two market and economic variables to watch in order to make sound decisions. In the next parts of this series, we’ll bring you more variables and three that perhaps, should be ignored. Let us worry about the rest of the noise.

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10. Earnings Momentum

We are fundamental investors and believe that the primary driver of equity prices is earnings. Regardless of short-term noise that may move markets, sooner or later earnings and earnings momentum will determine market direction.

There is a 77 percent positive correlation between earnings and equity prices. Occasionally you will see equity prices deviate from earnings growth due to various reasons. Since 1955, however, earnings have grown 6.5 percent annually, and the S&P 500 has increased about the same, growing 7 percent on average. In 2014, earnings were up 5 percent and valuations increased by 25 percent, resulting in the S&P 500 posting a 32 percent return.

We expect earnings growth to be in the 4 to 6 percent range this year and continue to expect positive returns in equities. We would not be surprised, though, if we experience a meaningful correction to get earnings and market performance back in line.


9. High Yield Spreads

High yield spreads will usually precede or confirm a material correction in the equity market.  We define a material correction as a decrease of 10 percent or more and haven’t seen this type of a correction since June 2012. Market corrections are a normal and healthy part of a secular bull market. As the domestic equity markets continue to increase, the probability of a meaningful correction also increases. Historically, changes in high yield spreads have either signaled or confirmed a correction in the equity market. For example, in early 1998, high yield spreads widened 65 basis points suggesting an oncoming correction. As expected, a 15 percent mid-year correction followed.  Again, spreads widened by 90 basis points in the summer of 2007, right before the peak of the S&P 500.

In the past two years we have seen smaller corrections ranging from 4 to 7 percent with virtually no widening of high yield spreads. This tells us the meaningful correction has not yet occurred, nor is a correction on the near-term horizon.

Remember to check back for the rest of the variables to watch (and ignore) next month!

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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A smooth road to retirement

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Are you ready to begin the next stage of your life? Retirement is still an option despite the current slow-growth economy. If you’re considering or approaching retirement, there are several items to keep in mind when nearing this important milestone. If you are planning to leave the working world in the next 18 to 24 months, here are a few considerations in the current economy:

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  • Understand your actual timeline.

    Your “time horizon” may be longer than you realize. Life expectancy is also a big factor. A retirement date is an initial benchmark, but you need to keep in mind that your money can still “work for you” while you are enjoying your newly discovered free time.

  • Make sure to have a cash reserve.

    You should build up a reserve large enough to carry you through six to 12 months of retirement expenses. This can provide a cushion in case of an unexpected downturn or a major unplanned expense.

As markets can vary year to year, those with more than two years until retirement can plan for either situation in the following ways:

  • Increase contributions.

    Invest extra cash. Consistent dollar-cost averaging can help reduce the worry of when and how much to invest. You may also want to direct some of those extra contributions into a cash reserve, just in case of unexpected declines.

  • Diversify, diversify, diversify.

    Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Throughout market cycles, different classes, styles and assets with diverse market capitalizations perform differently. Actively managing your portfolio diversification can have a greater impact on performance than individual investments.

Most of all, flexibility and patience are virtues in the world of portfolio management.  Don’t fall in love with a retirement date, and don’t be frustrated with market activity. If you have questions or concerns, it may be advantageous to seek the advice of an experienced professional.

Professional advisors can offer objective, educated and customized guidance. They are also an objective and knowledgeable resource that can provide a valuable perspective. While an advisor may not be able to provide every person with the news they want to hear, a good financial advisor can help maximize and leverage the assets individuals have against their personal timelines, risk tolerance and goals.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


Mr. Diederich serves as managing director of portfolio management. He is responsible for managing the portfolios of high net worth clients and select institutional relationships. He joined UMB in 2003. Mr. Diederich earned a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Missouri State University in Springfield, Mo., and a Master of Business Administration from the University of Missouri – Kansas City. He is a Certified Financial Planner®, a member of the Financial Planning Association and has more than 15 years of experience in the financial services industry.



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