Blog   Tagged ‘economy’

What’s happening with oil? (part I)

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Our Chief Investment Officer answers your questions about oil prices:

  • How low will oil prices go and for how long
  • What does it mean for the consumer?
  • What does it mean to corporate earnings and financial markets
  • Can we see attractive returns in the equity markets without the contribution of the energy sector?

Check back tomorrow for part II!

 

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K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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UMB Hometown: Colorado

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Good news, Coloradans. Your economy is robust right now. Learn more about your economic outlook and how areas like energy, construction and aerospace help the state be one of the top performing in the United States.

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Mr. Robinson is the CEO-Colorado Region for UMB. He is responsible for strategic direction and growth for UMB in Colorado. He joined UMB in 1981 and has 33 years of experience in the financial services industry.



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More holiday sales = economic growth (Part II)

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Our Chief Investment Officer reports on the outcome of his predictions made before Black Friday.

See below for more…

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Before Thanksgiving, we suggested that today’s consumers are financially healthier than in past years, which, we think, will drive a robust holiday spending season.

Some of the numbers reported appeared to be a bit Grinch-like. The National Retail Federation reported that Thanksgiving weekend sales were down 11 percent and online sales posted negative growth as well.

Our research at UMB leads us to a more cheerful conclusion, for two primary reasons.

  • Black Friday appears to be losing its reserve. You may recall that in the past retailers competed with one another to be the first store to open on Friday morning. Then they began opening the stores on Thanksgiving. Fast forward to today, when many retailers have promotional items on display prior to the holiday. Perhaps Black Friday has become Black November, meaning that the window of shopping days to be analyzed has become longer than just one weekend.
  • Several online retailers announced robust sales gains. We believe online sales are growing nearly 30 percent this season. We think this is due to the adoption of mobile technology. Since online retailers are open 24/7, so is the option to shop. We are also seeing a shift from brick and mortar stores to online retailers and we expect this trend to continue.

The retail sales data, along with other recently released economic data, supports our forecast of greater than 3 percent GDP growth in the fourth quarter, giving us nice momentum into 2015.

In Part I of this report, we anticipated material job growth this holiday season. The non-farm payroll growth in November proved that to be accurate with a gain of 321,000 jobs, again, supporting GDP growth of well over 3 percent.

Clearly the labor market is strengthening. Unemployment stands at 5.8 percent, and we think it will continue to head lower throughout 2015. Job openings are at a level we haven’t seen since 2001.

The labor market, along with higher stock and home prices and lower energy costs, has boosted consumer confidence. So it was no surprise to us that the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index has risen to a seven-year high.

Lastly, manufacturing data in the United States is hovering around a three-year high, also supporting our GDP forecast.

The bottom line is that all signs are leading us to believe that consumption will continue at a healthy pace. Since consumption is almost 70 percent of GDP, we think economic growth in 2015 will be between 3 to 3.5 percent; significantly higher than what we have seen throughout the last five years.

Given our optimistic economic outlook, we expect to see favorable returns in the stock market. In 2015 we expect 4 percent revenue growth and 6 percent earnings growth — that should lead to 10 percent total returns.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Manufacturing and Technology Part IV: Q&A

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Our audience was filled with manufacturers with workforce issues. If you’re in the same boat, check out the answers to these common questions.

In case you missed it earlier on the blog: our expert panelists explained how they find the right employees for their organizations, reach out to high school graduates and tackle advanced manufacturing.

 

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Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Manufacturing and Technology Part III

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3-D printing and advanced manufacturing are hot topics in the manufacturing and technology industry that our panelists tackled at a recent thought leadership event.

Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

In case you missed it earlier on the blog: our expert panelists explained how they find the right employees for their organizations and reach out to high school graduates.

Later this month, we’ll bring you more answers to some frequently asked questions.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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How to take advantage of your banking partner

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Is your bank helping you make money?

Optimism is on the rise among business owners. This is the first year coming out of a down cycle in the economy and businesses are ready to grow. They are looking to expand operations, hire new talent and purchase new equipment. But they are also searching for new strategies, financing options and ideas for better market penetration. In today’s economy, one of the best partners a business can have is their banker. Ask yourself if your banker is:

  • bringing more to the table than monthly reports or the weekly “how’s it going” call
  • strategizing with business owners on how to expand operations, create more efficiencies and generate more revenue
  • understanding every aspect of a business, from cash flow to risk management and payroll to IT services.

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Here are a few areas bankers can help businesses strategically grow and profit in today’s economy.

How Does Your Cash Flow?

Most business owners talk about the importance of cash flow, but not many go deep into the process and determine how to make it better. Businesses need to ask questions such as: How many days does it take to collect on receivables? How long are you paying on collectables? Are you getting discounts for paying early?

A lot of companies are operating inefficiently.  They are duplicating internal steps or making extra steps to receive money. It costs $2 to $5 to mail a check, whereas sending an Automated Clearing House (ACH) payment costs less than $1. Businesses need to review how much time it takes to print, stuff and mail a check versus using a card or ACH payment.

By working closely with a banker, businesses can gain cash flow relief and create better efficiencies in their operations. Bankers also can help business owners create a profitable and logical cash flow system.

Risk Management and Efficiency

Risk management is exactly what it sounds like. Anything businesses can do to manage risk will ultimately benefit their bottom line. This includes having dual controls with employees, doing regular inventory checks, having different people sign off on checks and having a process to detect and deter internal and external fraud. So much risk can be diverted simply by paying attention to the small, everyday details.

Risk efficiency is something bankers also should discuss with businesses as it relates to items such as outsourcing payroll or return collections. Often times there are functions that businesses can outsource to save time and money. One of the main things to be outsourced is payroll. A payroll provider can help save a company time and money. They may also accept tax liability so the employer isn’t responsible for tax penalties.

For companies with large receivables, it may be more efficient to have a lockbox or outsourced collection system. Bankers can greatly reduce time and efforts for clients that have high receivables. Another area to outsource is IT. Businesses can outsource their IT needs to a third-party group in order to save time, headaches and money.

Creating Operational Efficiencies

Bankers understand cash and business cycles. They can help a business create operational efficiencies in several areas, including payments, cash flow cycles, commercial cards, reconciliation and so on.

One example is the process of purchasing equipment. As businesses expand their work, make repairs or replace units, they may find themselves making multiple purchases throughout the year. Rather than go through the process of taking out a separate loan for each investment, companies should map out their anticipated needs for the year and take out a line that will cover all potential investments. Not only will this save time, but it also provides flexibility to buy new or used equipment and to proactively plan for capital expenditures they may want to make during the year.

Purchasing cards are another item to consider from a processing standpoint. Not only does the right program provide valuable rewards, but it also cuts down on check writing and provides increased flexibility in cash flow. Additionally, it creates a more streamlined tracking system for accounting departments. By allowing job numbers to be attached to specific expenses, companies can easily allocate costs to the appropriate projects, which results in more effective planning and budgeting.

By working closely with a banker, businesses truly have the opportunity to expand and grow through creating efficiencies in areas they never knew could be improved. Any operational, cash or risk management improvement will ultimately improve a company’s bottom line and their outlook for future growth opportunities.


Mr. Bibens is a treasury management officer for UMB’s Commercial Deposits department. He is responsible for providing consultative technology and cash flow management solutions to companies and public entities throughout the Greater Missouri area. He joined UMB in 2010 and has 10 years of experience in the financial services industry.



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More holiday sales = economic growth

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Black Friday is only 10 days away! Will you brave the mall? As you stand in the long lines, we’ll give you some tidbits to think about with how your purchases play a part in boosting the economy this holiday season.

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This year retailers are expecting much more than a lump of coal. Major retailers and shipping companies are expecting holiday sales to increase more than 4 percent. We haven’t seen 4 percent growth since 2011. Throughout the last decade, holiday sales have averaged 2.9 percent growth.

Many retailers have already announced significant hiring plans to meet the demand—so seasonal workers may be up as much as 10 percent from last year. A couple of primary shipping companies are even doubling their holiday workforce largely due to demand coming from e-commerce.
1So while you can see that most of the economic data in the United States supports a rather jolly shopping season, we can’t ignore some risks that could shake consumer confidence. A correction in the stock market, or signs of a recession in Europe are events that would in – fact, affect this forecast.

However, we strongly believe that consumers are in better financial health for a number of reasons:

  • Household net worth is at an all time high. This is due to higher stock and home prices.
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  • The labor market is solid. Unemployment is less than 6 percent and job growth has been increasing at a nice pace. These employment gains should continue as there are 4.8 million job openings, a level we haven’t seen since 2001.
  • You are probably noticing lower prices at the pump as well. That translates to more disposable income in consumer’s pockets.
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  • And finally, consumer confidence has been trending up since the Great Recession. And when we feel good about things, we consume.

There are even more factors that point to a better holiday season than last year:

  • Last year the government shutdown in the fourth quarter may have shaken consumer confidence and affected spending – we aren’t facing that situation this year.
  • Unseasonably cold and stormy weather led to some store closings across the nation.
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  • Lastly, in 2013 there were six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to 2012. This year there is one additional day, which makes year over year comparable sale easier to beat.

We think this holiday shopping season will support our forecast of 3 percent economic growth in the fourth quarter.  We also expect to see positive returns in the domestic stock markets.

I wish all of you a happy and healthy holiday season. I’ll be back to deliver part two of this forecast after Thanksgiving.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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Manufacturing and Technology: Attracting a New Workforce

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Last month our expert panelists explained how they find the right employees for their organizations. Now these manufacturing and technology industry leaders tackle the topic of education and attracting the next generation to the workforce.

Kim Maddigan (CEO, AdamWorks) says the industry needs to reintroduce manufacturing as an appealing career option for young people in the United States. The panelists also discuss whether or not internships and job shadowing are a helpful approach.

Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

Next month, we’ll bring you the panelists’ answers to some frequently asked questions.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Manufacturing and Technology: A New Workforce Dynamic

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How do you find the right employees for your organization? A panelist of leaders in the manufacturing industry shared their struggles and successes with the ever-changing workforce.

Panelists:

Jon Kinning, COO, RK Mechanical, Inc.
Kim Madigan, CEO, AdamWorks
Bill Newland, CEO, Hercules Industries
Kevin Fink, CEO, Ice-O-Matic

Moderator:

Bart Taylor, Founder/Publisher, Company Week

Next month, we’ll bring you these panelists’ insights on education and technology advancements.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


UMB Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: UMBF) is a diversified financial holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., offering complete banking services, payment solutions, asset servicing and institutional investment management to customers. UMB operates banking and wealth management centers throughout Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona and Texas, as well as two national specialty-lending businesses. Subsidiaries of the holding company include companies that offer services to mutual funds and alternative-investment entities and registered investment advisors that offer equity and fixed income strategies to institutions and individual investors.



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Hometown Perspective: Wichita

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We recently filled you in on how the economy is looking in Kansas. Now we’re going to zoom in and tell you about Wichita. Chris Howell, Western Kansas Region President, shares the optimism and opportunity in Wichita this year.

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