Blog   Tagged ‘equity’

Simply a correction or a looming bear market?

  |  Posted by

Our Investment Management team is hosting an exclusive webinar and conference call Friday at 10 a.m. (CST) to discuss recent market noise and reconsidering long term economic themes. To join us at this web conference, click here, or dial in (at least five minutes prior to the call) to 1-888-466-9845 and passcode: 9381 467#

Corrections

Stock market corrections (a decline of 10 percent) are a normal and healthy part of a bull market. We have all been concerned that we haven’t seen a correction since 2011, as the markets went virtually straight up with very little volatility. And then came August 2015.

We think this is a correction: a violent reaction to four primary factors.

  • Valuations — Currently the market trades at a slight premium, as measured by Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples. Prior to last week’s trading, the market traded at approximately 17 times earnings. We think the market will trade at 16 times earnings, and if you assume the S&P 500 will earn $120 in 2016, the S&P 500 should trade at 1920.
  • Earnings scare — Perhaps the market is now fairly valued; however if earnings estimates are in question, then the valuation of the market is wrong and prices may move lower.
  • Global economic slowdown–China and other emerging markets are clearly slowing. China represents 14.1 percent of global nominal GDP.
  • Lack of confidence in central bankers– Most historical bear markets have come from Federal Reserve tightening and upcoming economic recessions.
Continue Reading

U.S. economy

The recent economic news was surprisingly good for the United States and even for Europe, perhaps suggesting that China is not the be-all and end-all of the world economy. U.S. housing data was especially strong this week with housing starts and existing-home sales reaching post-recovery highs. Those strong numbers should have a trickle-down effect on the U.S. economy as those homes are financed, furnished and remodeled.

China

China’s economy has slowed throughout the past few years and clearly is not growing at a 7 percent rate, the country’s official GDP growth estimate. Other variables such as electricity consumption, rail car volumes and airline traffic all point to a growth rate slowdown, but not a collapse. The question is how will China’s slowdown affect the U.S. economy?

U.S. exports to China account for 8 percent of total exports and only 1.2 percent of GDP. Admittedly, exports to other Asian economies account for another 15 percent of exports, but the risks of a widespread Asian financial crisis resembling what happened in 1997 and 1998 are quite low.

Many have cited the Chinese stock market as an indicator of their economic outlook. The 40 percent decline in the Chinese stock market since June has nothing to do with any deterioration in the Chinese economy, just as the 58 percent surge in the first half of this year didn’t reflect a genuine improvement in economic fundamentals. It’s worth remembering that the Shanghai composite index is still up by 38 percent throughout the past 12 months.

Central bankers

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been clear that its decision to hike rates will be data-dependent. But is it also market dependent? We don’t think the Fed will ignore what is happening in the financial markets. The probability of liftoff in September has been reduced significantly. Most bear markets (a decline of 20 percent) come from Fed tightening and upcoming economic recessions. The Fed doesn’t want to commit a “policy mistake” and be blamed for a bear market or a recession.

Europe just initiated a quantitative easing program earlier this year. This should bolster both its economy and investor sentiment, and mitigate downside pressure on its markets.

China’s policymakers also have plenty of scope for further stimulus, both monetary and fiscal. In fact, as I write this, China has lowered interest rates.

U.S. Stock Market

The last time we saw a correction using closing prices was in 2011, when from May to August the S&P 500 declined 11.1 percent. Last year we saw a correction in October; it was slightly less than a 10 percent correction and recovered quickly. Following are current returns as of this writing:
current returns 8/26/15

Some markets, such as commodities, are in a bear market:
commodities in a bear market

There is clearly a revaluation of global growth.

Conclusion

What does this mean for equities? Based on the recent market correction, it will be difficult for the S&P 500 to reach new highs in 2015. However, the average decline of all corrections greater than 5 percent since the 1920s may indicate that we are close to the lows for this year. The average peak-to-trough decline during a 5+ percent correction is -12 percent, which implies a low of 1870 on the S&P 500 or 3 percent lower at the time of this publication. Potential positive catalysts for the market to go back to recent highs include clarity on the Fed and China.

What does this mean for interest rates? Clearly, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might use recent turbulence as a reason to postpone initiation of liftoff for rates — the risk of being accused of making a policy mistake will likely mean there is no adjustment of rates at the September meeting. However, if we are correct that recent market turbulence has merely been a valuation reset, and longer-term economic outlooks remain reasonably stable, we expect rates to begin an upward move in the near future.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

 

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Investment Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals. UMB Financial Services, Inc.* is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Financial Corporation, and an affiliate of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2015. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

 

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , , ,

What doesn’t matter: the non-drivers of the economy

  |  Posted by

In a world where a constant stream of economic data and commentary is the norm, it’s crucial to be able to sift through what really matters (see my post from last week for those insights) to make better-informed investment decisions. Now, let’s look at what doesn’t really matter when assessing the driving forces of the economy. We’ll assess why “Fed Talk” and high frequency economic data are oftentimes deemed important, yet have very little relevance.

Continue Reading

Fed Talk
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members. All of them have their own opinions on the state of the economy.  As the old joke goes, if you have 12 economists in a room you will get 14 opinions.

The Fed develops forecasts like many Wall Street prognosticators, and their track record is very similar: not better, but not worse.  One would think since they hold the cards, their track record should be superior. However, you don’t need to be glued to your computer waiting for the next Fed press conference. Watch what they actually do, not what they say.

High-Frequency Economic Data
The high-frequency weekly indicators are meant to be accurate in observing economic trends in real time.  However, these data points can be misleading when observed point-to-point.

Take mortgage applications in 2015 for example; this data is released every Wednesday. Looking at one week in January, it indicates mortgage applications were up 49 percent. Then, a week in February recorded applications down 13 percent. The point is that just because you can track the data, doesn’t mean it is a helpful economic indicator.

The variety of data points we have at our fingertips today is nearly unfathomable. As investors look for more efficient ways to use the data at hand, remember to track the U.S. dollar, employment and global GDP. Take what the Fed says with a grain of salt and rather, watch what they do. And if you have high-frequency economic data in front of you, remember – just because it can be tracked, doesn’t mean it’s delivering information that should be used.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

 

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

 

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , , ,

What really matters: the drivers of today’s economy

  |  Posted by

Every day we are bombarded with data and opinions meant to help investors manage their portfolios. Much of the data can be ignored, because unfortunately most of it is just that—data. As investors, we only want to explore the kind of data that becomes useful information. My team and I will figure out what you need to know to grasp where the market is heading by uncovering what really matters when forecasting economic activity. In a world where a constant stream of economic data and commentary is the norm, it’s crucial to be able to sift through what really matters to make better-informed investment decisions.

The important variables to monitor over the next year will be the U.S. dollar, employment and key global issues.

I visited The Streetrecently to share my insights.

Watch…

 

Continue Reading

The U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar (the dollar) has become increasingly important because of two key functions.

1) its impact on corporate earnings in the United States.

2) global economic conditions and its ability to provide insight into relative interest rates.

Let’s take a look at the short-term and long-term impact of the dollar on the economy.

Short-term:

With the recently-strengthened dollar, the fast increase is what had a meaningful impact on our economy. A strong dollar makes exported goods and services that are produced in the United States more expensive. Numerous conglomerates have cited the strong dollar as a headwind that has negatively affected corporate earnings, stating that this will be a driver putting downward pressure on earnings and stock prices due to the translation impact1 and competitive concerns2. However, small businesses which typically do not have as much international exposure will not be as negatively affected by a strong dollar. Also, the United States is a net importer; in the first quarter we exported $2.08 trillion and imported $2.63 trillion. Commodities are negatively correlated with the dollar and as it strengthens, commodity prices will fall. This will be a positive for companies that use commodities as an input variable and for the general consumer.  We expect continued strength in the dollar.

Long-term:

We see that the dollar typically strengthens when the U.S. economy is outpacing its peers. In addition, we think the United States will soon be hiking interest rates while lowering rates is popular elsewhere around the world. This would suggest more upside for the dollar. However, we think Europe will show signs of economic growth and this should cause the dollar to stabilize. It is imperative that we pay attention to the dollar. It matters more than investors realize.

To learn more about the value of the U.S. dollar, check out my video from earlier this year.

Employment
Jobs are one of the most important variables to an economy.  As jobs are created, consumer confidence increases and over time, wages increase.

Short-term:

What matters are jobs, jobs and more jobs. Job creation is the critical component in breaking the U.S. economy free from being “stuck in the mediocre-growth-mud.” In the short run, it is not critical what kinds of jobs are created, or whether they are high or low paying. Rather, it’s more important to focus on job growth and a low unemployment rate. Those variables alone will increase consumer confidence and move the markets. This year we expect that an average of 250,000 jobs will be created per month, similar to 2014.

Long-term:

The quality of jobs and wage growth remains in question. It appears there are some structural changes developing.

The U-6 is one of the ways the Bureau of Labor Statistics more critically measures long-term growth. The U-6 is calculated by adding the marginally attached workers (people who have become discouraged and stopped looking for employment) and part-time workers to the unemployment rate. This puts the U-6 at 10.8 percent, almost twice the rate of the unemployment rate (5.5 percent).

The jobs created have been in lower-paying industries, such as retail and leisure and hospitality. In addition, part-time employment due to economic reasons has not improved since 2010. This indicates a skill mismatch and a potential structural change developing.

The labor market appears to be tightening; unemployment has improved significantly since 2009, yet there appears to be limited wage pressure.  We think once the U-6 breaches 10 percent, wage inflation will appear on the horizon. Employment matters.

Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
We operate in a global economy.  What happens overseas can have a material impact on the U.S. economy.

Short-term:

All eyes are on Europe. Whether Europe can successfully manage Greece and enter a recovery phase is up in the air. Europe’s economy has been growing very slowly. Similar to the United States in 2009, lower interest rates and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank are now critical to global economic and market activity. Approximately 10 percent of our exports go to the Eurozone. The consensus GDP growth in Europe is 1.5 percent in 2015.  As monetary stimulus and green shoots of growth sprout in Europe, risk-based assets should perform well around the globe.

Long-term:

China is important to the global economy for two primary reasons:

  1. China represents the second largest economy in the world. The U.S., the largest economy, has a $16.8 trillion economy, while China’s economy is only $13.3 trillion.
  2. Even more important than size is growth rate. In 1985, China represented 3 percent of global GDP and the U.S. represented 25 percent. Today, China represents 14 percent and the U.S. has dropped to 19 percent. Even though the Chinese economy is smaller than the U.S. economy, it has been growing at a faster pace.  In 2010, China was growing at a pace of 10.5 percent.  Growth in 2014 slowed to 7.4 percent, although the data from their government has been questioned by many.

The real risk is if China’s economic activity slows to less than 6 percent growth. For a country with 1.4 billion people a slowdown would send a ripple throughout the world’s economy, as China’s imports will wane. We operate in a worldwide economy and ignoring these global variables is not an option.

Remember to check back for “What Doesn’t Matter: The non-drivers of the economy” next week!

[1] Translation is negatively impacted because sales generated outside the U.S. must be converted into dollars for financial reporting purposes. Therefore, a higher dollar = lower sales in dollars. So focus on sales ex-currency impacts.

[1] Example: Airbus, a European airline manufacturer, becomes price competitive versus Boeing, a U.S. airline manufacturer when the Euro weakens relative to the Dollar.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

 

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , , , ,

How to use a home equity line of credit

  |  Posted by

Finding the treasure within your home
home improvement

We’ve walked you through the steps to buying a new home. Before you finished unpacking, we’re guessing you already started a list of improvements and additions to give your new home a personal touch.

Reports like this one show that you’re not alone. Today, home improvement is becoming a growing trend for many American homeowners. Much of this growth is attributed to a rebound in the housing market and the highest consumer confidence scores since 2008.

So should you tackle a home improvement project?

Whether it’s updating your bathroom or adding more space to accommodate a growing family, improving your home can be a fun experience and a strategic method of increasing its fair market value. Research has shown that adding a deck and turning your attic into a bedroom raise the most value, returning approximately 85 percent of your original investment.

If you are considering making a home improvement, using a home equity line of credit (HELOC) to borrow against the equity in your home may be a good solution for financing the project. With today’s low interest rates and steady rise in home prices, you may have greater opportunity to borrow against your equity.

Some advantages:

  • You can make purchases with a HELOC debit card. Using the card is an easy and efficient way for you to pay for needed items.
  • The flexibility factor – the home equity line is something you can access as many times as you need to, as long as the credit is available. But remember to be disciplined with your spending. If you would like to use the equity in your home for a purchase, the wisest thing to do is use it for investments that help retain or add value to your home.

Give yourself an additional level of comfort by seeking counsel from your banker or financial advisor. This person is experienced in carefully reviewing all the home equity options to ensure you have the appropriate financial resources to complete your project in the most strategic way possible.

Continue Reading

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


Ms. Michelle Nischbach joined UMB in 2010. As Territory Sales Director in the consumer bank, she is responsible for overseeing operational and advisory excellence within five primary operating markets: St. Louis, Greater Missouri, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arizona. Ms. Nischbach has 26 years of experience in the financial industry and earned her MBA from Lindenwood University.



Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , ,

Top 10 Market and Economic Variables to Watch…and 3 to Ignore – Part I

  |  Posted by

At its core, investment management involves researching thousands of variables and data points. Careful analysis is required of all of these variables and data points to create a “mosaic of information” in order to draw a conclusion on market and economic directions. With the 24/7 news cycle, investors have more data, surveys and reports in front of them than ever before.

In the spirit of a classic David Letterman Top Ten, we’ve put together our own list, but with a twist at the end. KC visited The Street and The Hays Advantage on Bloomberg Radio to share his insights.

Watch…

ListenKC Mathews on the Hays Advantage

Below are the first two market and economic variables to watch in order to make sound decisions. In the next parts of this series, we’ll bring you more variables and three that perhaps, should be ignored. Let us worry about the rest of the noise.

Continue Reading

10. Earnings Momentum

We are fundamental investors and believe that the primary driver of equity prices is earnings. Regardless of short-term noise that may move markets, sooner or later earnings and earnings momentum will determine market direction.

There is a 77 percent positive correlation between earnings and equity prices. Occasionally you will see equity prices deviate from earnings growth due to various reasons. Since 1955, however, earnings have grown 6.5 percent annually, and the S&P 500 has increased about the same, growing 7 percent on average. In 2014, earnings were up 5 percent and valuations increased by 25 percent, resulting in the S&P 500 posting a 32 percent return.

We expect earnings growth to be in the 4 to 6 percent range this year and continue to expect positive returns in equities. We would not be surprised, though, if we experience a meaningful correction to get earnings and market performance back in line.


9. High Yield Spreads

High yield spreads will usually precede or confirm a material correction in the equity market.  We define a material correction as a decrease of 10 percent or more and haven’t seen this type of a correction since June 2012. Market corrections are a normal and healthy part of a secular bull market. As the domestic equity markets continue to increase, the probability of a meaningful correction also increases. Historically, changes in high yield spreads have either signaled or confirmed a correction in the equity market. For example, in early 1998, high yield spreads widened 65 basis points suggesting an oncoming correction. As expected, a 15 percent mid-year correction followed.  Again, spreads widened by 90 basis points in the summer of 2007, right before the peak of the S&P 500.

In the past two years we have seen smaller corrections ranging from 4 to 7 percent with virtually no widening of high yield spreads. This tells us the meaningful correction has not yet occurred, nor is a correction on the near-term horizon.

Remember to check back for the rest of the variables to watch (and ignore) next month!

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

DISCLOSURE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:

UMB Private Wealth Management is a division within UMB Bank, n.a. that manages active portfolios for employee benefit plans, endowments and foundations, fiduciary accounts and individuals.  UMB Financial Services Inc * is a wholly owned subsidiary of UMB Bank, n.a. UMB Bank, n.a., is an affiliate within the UMB Financial Corporation. Banking and trust services offered through UMB Private Wealth Management, a division within UMB Bank, n.a.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and contains no investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities. Statements in this report are based on the opinions of UMB Private Wealth Management and the information available at the time this report was published.

All opinions represent our judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time without notice. You should not use this report as a substitute for your own judgment, and you should consult professional advisors before making any tax, legal, financial planning or investment decisions. This report contains no investment recommendations and you should not interpret the statements in this report as investment, tax, legal, or financial planning advice. UMB Private Wealth Management obtained information used in this report from third-party sources it believes to be reliable, but this information is not necessarily comprehensive and UMB Private Wealth Management does not guarantee that it is accurate.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This information is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is no guarantee of any future results. Neither UMB Private Wealth Management nor its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of your use of all or any part of this report.

“UMB” – Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Copyright © 2012. UMB Financial Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

*Securities offered through UMB Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC, or the Investment Banking Division of UMB Bank, n.a.

Insurance products offered through UMB Insurance, Inc. You may not have an account with all of these entities. Contact your UMB representative if you have any questions.

Securities and Insurance products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * NOT A DEPOSIT * NOT INSURED BY ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY * MAY LOSE VALUE


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , , , ,

My Home is Worth What? (Hometown Perspective: Denver)

  |  Posted by

UMB serves communities across an eight-state footprint. Each region is different, with its own personality and local economy. With that in mind, we’re launching a new Hometown Perspective series where you can gain insight into UMB and the communities we serve.

HomeAs a recent home buyer in Denver, I was pleasantly surprised to see that my home had increased in value by almost 40 percent over the last several months. No, I’m not a real estate genius with an uncanny ability to spot a home at low price and flip it for a profit.  Actually, I bought my home with the idea that I would live there for the rest of my life.

Continue Reading

So why do I care about a rise in home value if I’m not planning to sell any time soon, if ever? The answer is that my home is a series of projects and this boost in value gives me the equity to spend on home improvements. I will be able to add a floor over the subfloor in the living room and remodel the kitchen with new cabinets and a double oven with a warming drawer. This has been the plan all along but now I can complete these projects much sooner than I expected.

 

So if you’re like many in the Denver area and your home has increased in value recently, what should you do? Put a “For Sale” sign in your front yard? Head to your local bank and apply for a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)? It all depends on your own situation and your long-term plan.

  • Selling

    If you’re thinking about selling your home because the value has increased, you might consider sprucing it up a bit and then contacting your realtor. Add a coat of paint to some of the walls or have the carpet professionally cleaned. Then call up a real estate professional to work with you on selling your home.

  • Renovating

    If you plan to stick with your home for the long haul, it might be a good time to consider using your equity to start a remodeling project. If you have any questions or concerns, reach out to a trusted source of advice like your financial advisor or local banker.  They are usually well-equipped with experience, knowledge and tools that can help you decide.

Whatever you choose to do, be cautious and don’t jump into any big decisions without doing research. Look up the value of your home on sites like Zillow* and Trulia*. If you’re planning to apply for a HELOC, talk to a financial professional at your local bank about how much of your home’s value to borrow. You might even consider getting multiple opinions. If you plan to sell, you can consult your realtor on the best steps to take to prepare your home and when is the best time to put it on the market.

While you can work with a good real estate market to your advantage, your home is an asset that you should use wisely.

 

When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.

* UMB Bank, n.a. has provided these links for informational purposes only, and in no way endorses or insures the accuracy of the information contained therein.


Ms. Hales is vice president, financial center manager for the UMB financial center located in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in Denver, Colo. She is responsible for planning and executing sales routines with branch staff, coaching all team members. She joined UMB in 1990 and has 23 years of experience in the financial services industry.



Leave a Comment

Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,