Blog   Tagged ‘fixed assets’

Watching the Forecast: Ag interest rates may soon rise

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If you are an agribusiness leader, you have many variables to consider in today’s market. Weather patterns spanning across the too wet/too dry continuum continue to baffle producers. Grain and commodity prices have started to gain strength, and both are up from recent levels but are still below the highs of the past several years. And land prices continue to hold (for now) at historically high levels in many areas of the country.

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These factors are all important, but there is one other variable that may be the most important when planning for your financial future: interest rates. With historically low rates currently being offered for operating lines of credit, as well as some floating rate term debt financing that has been put in place during the last four to five years, it’s important to remember that interest rates can change as fast and dramatically as corn prices.

As the American economy improves and the Federal Reserve Bank looks at beginning to ease its securities purchasing, the stage is set for a return to “normal” interest scenarios during the next couple of years. As that happens, producers with large floating rate exposure can expect to see their interest expense double or even triple during that same time frame. The range between fixedand floating rates will also expand, returning to levels similar to those before the financial crisis. When that happens, borrowers with only floating rates will be at the mercy of the financial markets in terms of controlling their interest expense.

Reviewing your balance sheets and future cash flows now – with an eye toward the next several years – can both produce large potential interest expense savings and protect against possible loan repayment challenges. As you look ahead, here are four steps to better financial planning:

  1. Review your current debt and forecast projected debt levels for the next four years. Include your amounts, repayments required, current rates, and most importantly, whether your rates are fixed or floating.
  2. Optimize how you use your fixed assets (land or equipment) for securing the minimum level of total debt anticipated each year. This should be done regardless of whether it is presently for revolving/working capital lines or fixed assets.
  3. Determine your available cash flow for debt service during the next four years.
  4. Structure new fixed-rate debt now by using a conservative debt service coverage ratio (1.3 to 1 or greater).

By fixing rates now, with proper use of fixed assets as collateral, and carefully forecasting future operational cash flows, you can effectively lock in today’s historically low rates, save tens of thousands of dollars or more in interest expense, and be far better prepared to manage other variables that may come into play.

 

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Mr. Watson serves as president of the UMB Agribusiness Division. He joined UMB in August of 2005 and has also served as the president of the UMB Kansas region. Watson is a graduate of Wabash College in Crawfordsville, Indiana with a major in Psychology. He has also attended The Colorado School of Banking, The National Commercial Lending School (where he has also been an instructor), and the Stonier Graduate School of Banking.



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GDP Goes Hollywood

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Did you know that every five years the statistics that determine the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are reviewed and modernized as the U.S. economy changes? The GDP is one of the main indicators used to measure the health of our economy, so this review is very important.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) conducted a comprehensive revision of the GDP statistics from 1929 through 2013. This time around, the revisions included changes to intangibles, including books, movies TV shows, music, photographs and even greeting cards. Specifically, “intellectual property products” (an idea for a movie franchise) were moved from expense to investment classifications. This includes research and development; entertainment, literary and artistic originals; and software. They will be considered fixed assets to account for their ongoing contributions, such as royalties authors receive for their book sales.

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Including specific works and ideas from the ever growing “knowledge economy” was done to fill a void because these intellectual property products had not been labeled as an asset until now. Check out this recent New York Times piece, Getting Creative with the GDP, to learn more about these recent additions to the GDP.

These changes are important in making sure the GDP calculation stays relevant and current.  Since the recent revisions created only a minimal statistical change to the GDP, the general consensus to date seems to be that the findings do not change the overall picture.

What it does change is the outlook on creativity and innovation. For example, research and development is often viewed by most companies as an expense and not an asset. It’s difficult to place a continuing value on it because sometimes it’s successful and sometimes it’s not. The goal is not to place a specific number value on each individual intangible. Instead this change in GDP reporting is a paradigm shift in how we view the overall value of imagination and the creative process.

 

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When you click links marked with the “‡” symbol, you will leave UMB’s website and go to websites that are not controlled by or affiliated with UMB. We have provided these links for your convenience. However, we do not endorse or guarantee any products or services you may view on other sites. Other websites may not follow the same privacy policies and security procedures that UMB does, so please review their policies and procedures carefully.


K.C. Mathews joined UMB in 2002. As executive vice president and chief investment officer, Mr. Mathews is responsible for the development, execution and oversight of UMB’s investment strategy. He is chairman of the Trust Investment, Asset Allocation and Trust Policy Committees. Mr. Mathews has more than 20 years of diverse experience in the investment industry. Prior to joining UMB, he served as vice president and manager of the portfolio management group at Bank of Oklahoma for nine years. Mr. Mathews earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame. Mr. Mathews attended the ABA National Trust School at Northwestern University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the CFA Institute. He is past president of the Kansas City CFA Society and a past president of the Oklahoma Society of Financial Analysts.



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